Though no blockbuster or as frenetic as in years past, Black Friday 2025 was nevertheless a good day for the retail industry.
Consumers sensing that on Black Friday price promotions would peak and that the most desired gifts could sell out closer to Christmas, as well as the cold but sunny and clear weather, combined to fuel the business. So did all the new tools available to make shopping easier, such as agentic commerce, chatbots, and buy now, pay later programs.
According to reports from tech and research firms and mall executives, the crowds and purchasing on Black Friday were big enough to bolster expectations for mid-single-digit gains this season and mollify concerns that higher prices and economic uncertainties would put a big dent in holiday spending. They said crowd sizes, and the promotional intensity, seemed on par with last year. Price promotions were widely at 30 to 50 percent off, and are not likely to go significantly higher in the weeks ahead, except on an item basis with slow movers, industry sources said.
“It’s not a breakout year, but not a bad year. Growth is decent. Traffic is decent. It’s almost like a return to normalcy,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. “There’s low-to-mid-single digit velocity in terms of year-over-year growth in transactions.”
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Getting an Early Start
“Our parking lots and food courts were filling up by noon,” said Stephen Lebovitz, chief executive officer of CBL Properties. “So far everything we’ve been hearing is very positive, Lebovitz said, citing Lululemon, Aerie, Free People, as well as Sephora, Ulta, American Eagle Outfitters, Madewell, Lego, Apple, and a regional retail operator Palmetto Moon. Among CBL’s top properties are Cool Springs Galleria in Nashville; Fayette Mall in Lexington, Ky.; Hamilton Crossing in Chattanooga, Tenn., and West County Center in St. Louis.
At Tanger, which operates a portfolio of 38 outlet centers and three open-air lifestyle centers, “Our parking lots started to fill up at about 10 a.m., on par with last year for sure, and basket sizes have been bigger than prior years. Stores have been reporting lots of sales of puffer jackets, hats and gloves,” said Stephen Yalof, president and CEO. “It’s due to the discounting cadence, customers being anxious to get out and spend, and the sunny but cold weather. It’s put people in the holiday shopping spirit.”
Yalof said Tanger’s outlets opened at 6 a.m. Friday, but lines at some centers started to form as early as 5 a.m. “Black Friday is a sport. It’s something to do with friends and family, and when you are with a group, it makes it all the more pleasant waiting on long lines,” he said.
Ugg, Nike, Adidas, Kate Spade, Old Navy, North Face, Lululemon, Victoria’s Secret, and Coach outlets were among the busiest destinations, with footwear, athletic wear and outerwear the most popular categories, Yalof observed.
The Mall of America in Bloomington, Minn., owned by Triple Five Group, reported more than 14,000 people arrived within the first hour of shopping, representing a near 8 percent increase in traffic compared to 2024.
MRI Software, which provides software for commercial real estate, housing, retail, and energy companies, reported Black Friday foot traffic in New York City’s retail hubs decreased by 3.2 percent, year-over-year, but malls in the city were up 1.4 percent, year-over-year, suggesting consumers headed out early to grab a Black Friday deal.
The Westfield Garden State Plaza mall in Paramus, N.J., anchored by Macy’s, Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus, opened at 6 a.m., whereas the stores there opened at 7 a.m. “We let people in early so they could get warm and comfortable and get to the spots they wanted,” William Lewis, director of marketing for the mall, told WWD. “There was a really strong turnout right from the get-go.”
Gen Z Turns Out
Talking to customers through the day, Lewis sensed many had researched gifts and prices prior to turning up at the mall, and that the bulk of the traffic was GenZ. “These younger shoppers are well informed,” he said. “Last year, we had a record day. This Black Friday feels exactly the same. Traffic is very strong.”
Lewis said footwear, fashion, accessories, athleisure, footwear, menswear and technology were popular categories on Black Friday, citing Hollister, Skims, Apple, Aerie and PacSun, as well as Nordstrom and Macy’s, as appearing to do robust business.
The outlook was also good online. Software giant Adobe forecast that consumers would spend $11.7 billion online during Black Friday, up 8.3 percent year-over-year. Adobe predicted televisions, Bluetooth headphones, apparel, laptops, e-readers, jewelry, coffee and espresso machines, video games, stuffed animals and plush toys, and skin care gift sets would sell best on Black Friday.
Adobe surveyed 1,000 consumers in November, and 49 percent said they would get the best deals on Black Friday this season. Mobile shopping was expected to drive 56 percent of online sales on Black Friday (versus desktop), representing $6.6 billion in spend, and up 11.1 percent from last year.
Mobile shopping, abetted by AI, hit an all-time high on Thanksgiving, with 61.6 percent of online sales coming through a mobile device, compared to 59.5 percent in 2024. This represented $3.9 billion in online spend via mobile, up 9.4 percent, year-over-year.
“The magnitude of discounts was the big story on Thanksgiving yesterday, as retailers leaned into delivering great deals to drive consumer demand online,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement. “This was further propped up by impulse-led mobile shopping and the use of generative AI, which assisted shoppers in locating the best deals, two trends that helped deliver higher-than-expected overall spend on Thanksgiving.”
Salesforce reported that Black Friday would drive $78 billion in online global sales, up 5 percent year-over-year, and $18 billion in the U.S., up 3 percent year-over-year. “This is approximately five times the sales of an average day outside of the Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 holiday season,” Salesforce indicated. “Consumers are leaning into agentic customer service as they head into the busy Cyber Weekend. Consumers’ customer service conversations with AI agents surged 28 percent in the first three days of Cyber Week (Nov. 25 to 27) compared to the same time period the week before.”
Salesforce said prices on average were up 8 percent, due to the impact of tariffs, while order volumes on Thanksgiving fell 2 percent. “This indicates that this year’s sales growth was driven by consumers buying higher-priced goods rather than increased consumption,” Salesforce reported, adding that the top-performing categories in the U.S. were active apparel and footwear, up 19 percent; food and beverage, up 10 percent, and luxury apparel, up 7 percent.
Regarding promotions, Yalof estimated that 75 percent of the brands in Tanger centers were running promotions at levels consistent with last year, with a handful more promotional, and another handful less promotional.
“Customers are definitely seeing values shopping in-person,” Yalof added, noting that there was a rise in gift with purchases, stackable savings, and efforts to make the experience of shopping in person more inviting, with Tanger centers providing enhanced holiday decor, music, lighting and Christmas tree events.
He said Tanger started promoting holiday shopping in early November. “That customer is coming back. Far more brands are offering Black Friday promotions.” Across the Tanger portfolio, “We had 215 bespoke Black Friday promotions, compared to 140 last year.”
Discounts at Normal Levels
Westfield’s Lewis said, “I’m seeing discounting at 30 percent and upwards, with the majority at 40 to 50 percent, some up to 60 and 70” percent.
“Retailers are in pretty good shape with inventories,” said CBL’s Lebovitz. “They won’t have to do excessive promoting this year. Retailers have managed tariffs and inflation through a variety of strategies, from pricing to passing through costs to suppliers or tightening margins. I don’t think it’s impacting buying behavior.”
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