The sequential improvement DSW parent Designer Brands Inc. (DBI) saw in its third quarter earnings report is likely to get even better when it reports fourth quarter results later this month.
“Our analyses indicate DBI’s fundamentals improved over the course of Q4. We expect this factor will lead to a Q4 sales beat and EPS (earnings per share) in-line with consensus,” said UBS softlines analyst Jay Sole in a report on Wednesday.
Sole said DBI’s seasonal merchandise positioning appeared “increasingly favorable” heading into the Q4, in part due to sustained momentum in key cold-weather categories. Moreover, the boots category likely benefited greatly from the cold weather. He also expected promotion pressures to have moderated in the quarter as the company’s focus on inventory productivity is expected to have eased the amount of inventory that would require markdowns in Q4.
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DBI CEO Doug Howe said in the second quarter earnings conference call in September that the retailer had improved its in-stock levels of regular-priced products to 70 percent. He also noted that the company continued to optimize its digital fulfillment through its distribution center, which he said is “operationally more efficient than fulfilling from stores.”
Sole noted that investors will focus on DBI’s fiscal year 2025 guidance and early first-quarter trends. But Sole also said he expects positive early first quarter trends, with a solid start to the period as weather conditions normalized.
“We believe this along with a solid Q4 sales print could drive sentiment from low levels,” he wrote, noting the sentiment has been bearish around DBI as short interest remains elevated and DBI’s stock has fallen 20 percent. That decline reflects a stock that has underperformed the S&P 500 by 1,900 basis points year-to-date, Sole said.
The UBS analyst’s forecast for Q4 sales is a 2.1 percent year-over-year gain to $729 million, helped by “sequentially improving U.S. comp sales driven by better in-store and online traffic.” In addition, AUR (average unit retail) and conversion trends should remain favorable as the company continues to deliver a narrower, more focused brick-and-mortar assortment, Sole concluded, adding that industry data indicated that total visits to DSW’s website during Q4 were down 0.1 percent year-over-year, versus down 9.1 percent year-over-year in the prior quarter.
The fourth quarter consensus expects adjusted diluted loss of 51 cents per share on a revenue estimate of $718.9 million. For fiscal year 2025, the consensus is an adjusted diluted loss of 4 cents per share on projected revenue of $2.9 billion.
More broadly, UBS expects the North American footwear industry to grow at a 2 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate), but skewed to sports footwear and the online channel. “Athleisure should continue driving sports footwear at a mid-to-high-single-digit annual pace. We think department stores and specialty retail will likely continue losing share,” Sole concluded.
As for the impact on DBI, Sole, who has a neutral rating on the stock, said the company faces secular headwinds because it has a “relatively high exposure to fashion footwear, while consumers are generally moving towards athletic categories.” He cited DBI’s main banner DSW, which contributes about 75 percent of total sales and has 10-million-plus square footage “amid declining industry traffic trends.” Sole added that DBI’s attempt to shift its mix to online sales and athletic products can help offset some of those issues.
Not all analysts are as bearish on fashion footwear, which has seen a rebound in shopping trends. BTIG analyst Janine Stichter has a “Buy” rating on shares of Steven Madden Ltd. Although the firm has some pressure due to private label headwinds, the company has said in past earnings calls that dress shoe sales have ticked up. And at last month’s Coterie by Informa trade show, the Madden brand’s founder and design chief Steve Madden pointed to dress shoes and tall shaft platform boots as styles that garnered buyer interest. He also noted that sales of fashion sneakers were down slightly.
Since the last earnings report, DBI conducted a round of layoffs at the end of January across operations and brands. And last month, the shoe retailer named Sheamus Toal its new chief financial officer to fill the role that had been vacant since October.
