Swiss watch exports to the United States fell 46.8 percent in October, continuing a sharp correction after outside growth earlier in the year ahead of hefty tariffs, and accentuating an uneven performance across various geographies.
Overall, October exports slipped 4.4 percent to 2.2 billion Swiss francs despite a 12.6 percent increase in China, its second month of double-digit growth, which was also recorded in the United Arab Emirates, up 39 percent, and France, improving 10.8 percent.
The United Kingdom registered a decline of 7.4 percent, while Japan slipped 5.6 percent, according to data released Thursday from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry.
Analysts are keeping a close eye on the U.S., which accounts for 10.1 percent of Swiss watch exports, versus an 8.4 percent share for China, 8 percent for Japan, 7.4 percent for Hong Kong, and 6.8 percent for both Singapore and the U.K.
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“Given talks for a deal to lower the tariff rate to 15 percent are still ongoing, we would expect November (Swiss watch exports) to the U.S. to remain weak, with the potential for a catch up in December should the lower rate be implemented by then,” Barclays analyst Carole Madjo wrote in a research note.
The tariff rate for Switzerland currently stands at 39 percent.
Over at Bernstein, analyst Luca Solca noted that several luxury companies flagged strong American demand for watches in their third-quarter trading updates, “reflecting strong sell-out. (Year to date) exports to the U.S.A. are up 4 percent in October 2025, down from +11 percent last month.”
Madjo noted that China benefited from very easy comps, whereas for Japan they begin easing over the next few months. “We would expect Japan to come back to growth for the remainder of the year,” she said.
“A return to robust industry growth will ultimately depend on China,” Solca argued in his report, noting that Richemont’s specialist watchmakers division registered its first positive growth results at constant exchange rates in nearly two years, “but highlighted contrasting regional trends: with strong growth in the Americas offset by performance in China and Japan, which remain negative.”
The federation data for October also reflected a mixed picture across price segments, with exports of watches less than 200 Swiss francs vaulting 8.3 percent, those priced between 500 and 3,000 francs improving 9.4 percent, while higher-end of watches more than 3,000 Swiss francs at export price dropped 14.9 percent.
