Despite continued financial pressure, a large number of consumers still intend to go ahead and spend as normal this holiday season, underpinned by a real increase in gift-giving, hosting dinners and attending social events.
That’s of the key findings of the Q4 2026 quarterly briefing from the Kearney Consumer Institute (KCI), the internal think tank at global strategy and management consultancy under Kearney. The researchers found that shoppers are clearly in a financial pinch, but are still going ahead and planning to spend on the things they want to spend on.
The report, titled “The layered consumer: how consumers stack decision drivers,” explores consumer holiday behaviors and highlights small shifts in spending across self-gifting, decorating and travel, alongside larger increases in gift-buying for others and social hosting.
KCI lead Katie Thomas, author of the report, said financial security and ready cash are defining consumer sentiment this year, noting an unexpected trend toward economic caution. “Ready money and financial security are setting the mood this holiday season,” Thomas noted. “We found that the most cautious segment was the historically stable middle segment of the K-shaped economy, not the lowest income group.”
Thomas said heading into the holidays, shoppers’ plans look the same as last year, with 64 percent of consumers polled saying they expect to spend as normal, which compares with 65 percent in 2025. “But within those steady spending intentions, more people plan to give and gather,” Thomas wrote. “Seventy-six percent expect to buy gifts for others, up five percentage points from last year, while 37 percent plan to host dinners or parties, up six points.”
Thomas highlighted generational and income-based differences in deal hunting, pointing to interesting metrics on technology use. “One surprise was that AI use for finding deals didn’t increase year over year. But we did find that 29 percent of households earning over $75,000 were using AI versus just 17 percent of lower-income households,” she said.
Online shopping behavior continues to favor Amazon as both the default and favorite option, though retailer sites and apps have also seen significant usage. Younger shoppers are increasingly turning to social platforms to find bargains, with 64 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds using social media for deals—an 8 percent increase from the previous year.
The briefing also examined consumer trust across categories such as health, hair care and nutrition, revealing that accountability remains the primary driver of credibility. Credentialed authorities earned 50 percent of consumer trust, far outpacing artificial intelligence at 10 percent, while influencers suffered a trust gap despite high usage rates.
“We also saw generational differences with trust: the number of trusted sources increased from an average of nine for 55-to-64-year-old consumers to 13 for the 18-to-24s. Younger consumers are adding voices on top.”
Finally, the report identified a slight softening in everyday frugal habits, suggesting that consumers are easing up on extreme money-saving measures compared to last year.
“As financial strain rises for consumers, they report cutting back on spending in 10 out of 10 categories we looked at,” Thomas said. “Even so, it appears that they are scrimping less than they did last year, with fewer raising garden vegetables, thrift shopping, cooking at home or even sticking to a budget.”
