Billboard Women in Music 2025
Research from Circana provides further evidence that inflationary pricing is negatively impacting consumer spending. Aside from apparel and groceries, Circana’s latest data on U.S. office supplies sales (across physical and digital retail channels) came in at $11.5 billion in 2024, which represents a decline of 5 percent compared to the prior year. The firm also noted that total unit demand dropped 2 percent.
However, sales may be stronger this year.
“With persistent inflation impacting consumer spending on retail goods, the outlook for 2025 remains challenged, but increasingly stable with a projected 2 percent decline in 2025 and expected industry flattening through 2027,” the authors of the latest Future of Office Supplies report said.
Echoing other research report findings, Circana said consumers remained price conscious in 2024, “prioritizing essential product categories, seeking out discounts and increasingly choosing private label brands.”
Regarding private label, a recent global survey of consumers from EY found an increasing adoption of private label products among those polled, as they are turning to store brands as a cheaper alternative. Of those polled, 67 percent said private label “satisfies their needs just as well as branded products,” the report stated, while also noting that 30 percent of respondents “say they no longer consider brands at all when making purchasing decisions.”
Staples and Amazon both offer a broad assortment of private-label office supplies.
The Circana report also found that at the retail level, “sales continued to migrate online with e-commerce accounting for 24 percent of total office supplies revenue, an increase over 2023.” The authors of the report said traditional brick-and-mortar sales softened in 2024, declining 6 percent, “reinforcing the need for retailers and brands to adjust to evolving shopping behaviors.”
“The market faced headwinds in 2024, and 2025 has already presented a new set of challenges for consumers,” said Ben Arnold, industry adviser, office supplies at Circana. “We expect consumers to remain value-focused in their shopping behaviors this year, but brands that optimize pricing, promotions and assortment will be better positioned as the market stabilizes.”
Circana said, although most categories saw declines in 2024, “certain segments like self-stick notes, encased pencils and color markers are expected to show modest growth in 2025. The back-to-school season will remain a key sales period, with early promotions and discount strategies playing a crucial role in capturing demand,” adding that 35 percent of total office supplies dollars in 2025 “will be spent during the third-quarter back-to-school period and that revenue will decline less than 2 percent compared to [third quarter] 2024.”
Arnold said the office supplies industry “is adjusting to long-term shifts in how and where people work, learn and create. Retailers and manufacturers that take a proactive approach to digital transformation and consumer engagement, with an eye on maximizing the critical back-to-school shopping season, will be best positioned for success.”
