So far, so good.
After weeks of early discounting culminating on Black Friday, U.S. retailers saw enough gift shopping over the weekend to buoy hopes of meeting or beating their holiday sales goals.
While traffic in stores on Black Friday and Saturday was slightly down to flat from a year ago, online traffic was robust. As consumers got into the holiday spending spirit, demand overcame inflation and cost of living concerns, at least temporarily.
Purchasing on Friday and Saturday was also driven by the strong stock market, where on Friday the Dow closed at a record 44,910.65 points; less uncertainty due to the presidential election being decided, and weather conditions conducive to hitting the malls. Temperature drops on Friday and Saturday spurred sales of outerwear and winter accessories, which lagged through the fall; activewear also fared well. Retailers are generally managing inventories better, and utilizing AI more to gauge demand and generate flash sales.
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Momentum should continue on Cyber Monday, which is expected to drive $13.5 billion in sales in the U.S., up from $12.6 billion in 2023, according to Salesforce. Globally, Cyber Monday is seen driving $51 billion in online sales, up from $48.4 billion on Cyber Monday in 2023, Salesforce said. The software giant also reported that during the first half of Cyber Week, retailers using GenAI in their service experience saw a 9 percent higher conversion rate compared to retailers who are not.
Another software giant, Adobe, reported that on Black Friday U.S. consumers spent a $10.8 billion online, up 10.2 percent year-over-year. Between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m., $11.3 million was spent online every minute on Black Friday, with toys, jewelry, appliances, personal care, apparel and electronics among the top-performing categories, Adobe reported.
“Crossing the $10 billion mark is a big e-commerce milestone for Black Friday, for a day that in the past was more anchored toward in-store shopping,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “And with consumers getting more comfortable with everything from mobile shopping to chatbots, we have tailwinds that can prop up online growth moving forward.”
Mastercard reported that U.S. store and online sales on Black Friday, excluding automotive sales and unadjusted for inflation, were up 3.4 percent. “Black Friday was a good indicator of how the holiday season is positively shaping up,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute. “Our real-time insights show that consumers are comfortably in the gift-giving spirit as price reductions and deals occur across sectors, supporting budgets for holiday shopping.”
Mastercard indicated that online retail sales on Black Friday increased 14.6 percent, while in-store sales were up just 0.7 percent, compared to Black Friday last year. Jewelry, electronics and apparel were cited as the top categories, with particular strength in apparel e-commerce.
“Shoppers are making the most of seasonal deals and enjoying a balance of experiences spending and gifts for all loved ones,” said Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard and former chairman and chief executive officer of Saks Inc. “They’re more strategic in their shopping, though, prioritizing promotions that they believe hold the greatest value — opening their wallets, but with more intentional distribution.”
Seeking Deals
“Black Friday is no longer a day. It’s a season,” said Stephen Yalof, president and CEO of Tanger, the Greensboro, N.C.-based operator of 39 outlet centers and one lifestyle center. “The traffic starts building in late October/early November, and Tanger has been promoting Black Friday every day in November with different brands and sales to keep things exciting. Our traffic numbers this weekend beat last year. People are shopping in large groups. The whole family is coming out and shoppers are looking for deals.”
Coach, Ralph Lauren, Columbia, American Eagle, Aerie, Viori, Nike, Adidas and Gap Inc. were among the busiest outlets in Tanger centers over the weekend, Yalof said.
Asked if the deals were bigger this year than last year, Yalof replied, “I think so. The discounting started earlier this year than last year and a lot of the brands in some instances have better deals than last year, and on selected items. Yeti was on sale. I’ve never seen Yeti on sale.”
The consumer mindset, he said, is to “shop now and come in early” for fear that a particular product would sell out. “There’s a frenzied-ness I haven’t seen in recent years. I think it’s fueled by the shorter selling season and the weather just turning cold.”
Data from major software firms indicated that traffic at stores are down slightly from last year, but Yalof said, “Outlets are a different story. I visited a couple of full-price centers also and there were plenty of cars there, but the aspirational outlet shopper is looking for deals and they are lining up in our centers.”
“Everything we got from our malls is really positive,” said Stephen Lebovitz, president and CEO of CBL & Associates Properties, the Chattanooga, Tenn.-based real estate investment trust, when asked to comment on Friday’s and Saturday’s business. “We had really good crowds early. The stores offering good promotions had lines. The parking lots were full by mid-morning and stayed busy all day Friday.” Lebovitz said the Wednesday before Thanksgiving saw a stronger turnout than the same day a year ago. “People were hitting it hard given the short holiday season.”
Each year there’s typically a lull in business after Cyber Monday until 10 days to two weeks before Christmas. “Because of the shorter calendar, we don’t think there will be as much of a lull this year,” Lebovitz said.
Stores selling activewear, casual apparel and cosmetics, and those offering promotions and good discounts fared the best, Lebovitz said, noting that consumers have been hit by “a barrage of emails and texts” from retailers. CBL has a total of 94 malls, and outlet, lifestyle and open-air centers, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest.
Promoting Heavy, but No Fire Sales
“Things were good, not great,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. He said the weekend marked a return to shopping “normalcy” in the aftermath of COVID-19 and the subsequent spending splurge from federal assistance putting money into consumers’ pockets. Americans, Johnson said, are “shopping with a balance of wants and needs.”
Johnson said transaction velocity was highest at Costco, Walmart, Amazon, Gap Inc. and Urban Outfitters. Category-wise, athleisure was a standout, with Lululemon, Viori, Alo and Free People performing well in the category, Johnson said.
He also said that the promotional pace has been quite similar to last year, with discounts typically offering 30 percent off, with some up to 40 percent and select goods at the 50 percent mark. Almost all the retail promotions so far have been pre-planned. “There has not been any fire-sale pricing,” Johnson said.
At Elyse Walker, which operates six Elyse Walker designer stores and two Towne specialty stores, “Black Friday was a very healthy kick-off to holiday shopping,” said Summer Holl, president. “While we ran a Black Friday weekend promo that drove motivated traffic — additional 20 percent off markdown in store and online — we had a great mix of full-price selling and appointments as well. Our Los Angeles flagship was up triple digits to Black Friday last year and we saw a 10 percent comp increase in our New York City flagship. Footwear, both sale and full price, was a top seller. Shoppers were looking for buy now, wear now deals, knits and outerwear. Full-price selling was driven by new designer deliveries from Celine, Loewe, Bottega Veneta, Khaite and Altuzarra.”
“I’m beyond happy,” said Chris Riccobono, founder of Untuckit, which operates 89 stores across the U.S. as well as a robust online business. “It was amazing.”
He said the company launched its planned promotional sale a week early this year and was worried that the aggressive stance of some competitors might take a bite out of Untuckit’s business. That turned out not to be the case. “We held the same discount as we have for the past 13 years,” Riccobono said, with select items being offered at 50 and 60 percent off regular retail. “We comped up pretty significantly both in our stores and online. They’re not always in sync, but in this case, it was pretty even . . . . Everything was great last week — maybe [consumers] were just waiting for the election to end.”
Black Friday Bestsellers
Bestsellers included the men’s wrinkle-free Veneto shirt program, Hemsworth flannel shirt, wrinkle-free Cadetto shirt, the Lawrence and Cord shirts, the Archer sweater flannel and the Traveler pant program. While Untuckit is primarily a men’s brand, the women’s Bella program and the Lexie Sequin shirtdress were top performers.
Commenting on the business ahead, Riccobono said, “It’s held for eight days in a row so we feel like it’ll be a great holiday season.”
“Our full-price retail was strong the last month and we experienced the same trend during Black Friday,” said Ken Ohashi, CEO of Brooks Brothers. The company’s stores and e-commerce performed similarly well. “They were neck and neck,” he said, “And we have significantly less clearance than last year. We’re pretty clean and our gross margin and maintained margin are up, so we’re feeling good.”
As a result, the company moved some dollars previously spent on affiliate marketing to more traditional advertising such as billboards, television and out-of-home ads. “It’s helping us,” he said.
Among the top sellers were “holiday dressing” pieces and formalwear, which were the focus in this year’s holiday campaign. Elevated sportswear in sweaters and knits also did well.
Despite the compressed calendar, Ohashi expects the strong performance to continue through December. “The stores that we recently expanded or are in new markets all performed very well,” he said, pointing to the larger Rockefeller Center store in New York City, as well as the Wisconsin Avenue unit in Washington, D.C., and Newbury Street in Boston. “They all performed well,” he said. “Newbury Street, in particular, has been on fire and four out of five people there have never shopped with us before.” As a result, Ohashi said he’s “not stressed going into the first quarter in terms of inventory,” and believes 2025 will also be strong for Brooks Brothers.
Rhone had a strong holiday kickoff, too. “We had record-setting days in all channels,” said CEO Nate Checketts, who hit stores this weekend in Los Angeles while his cofounder and brother Ben hit stores in Boston. He said that in addition to strength in a new menswear product called the Coldspell Commuter Pant, which features a brushed flannel lining for warmth, Rhone was pleased with the performance of its recently launched women’s collection. “We saw higher ‘mixed baskets,’ of people buying both men’s and women’s,” Checketts said.
Rhone stuck to its planned promotions of 25 percent off select products, despite competitors running 30 percent or higher sales. “We’ve run the same promotions for the last four years and we did the same this year.”
“Consumers are starting to come back in a stronger way after a year of uncertainty and a post-election cycle. It’s been a crazy couple of years.” But with the strength of Black Friday weekend as a backdrop he’s hopeful the momentum will be “pulled forward” to Cyber Monday and the remainder of the season.
Bob Mitchell, co-CEO of Mitchells Stores, which operates luxury units under the Mitchells, Richards, Wilkes Bashford and Marios names on the East and West Coasts, said that despite Thanksgiving being a week later than last year, business in 2024 is very strong.
“We just capped off a record, double-digit November and we’re off to a double-digit start for the holiday season,” he said. “Men’s has come on strong in the last few weeks,” particularly tailored clothing — especially sport coats — and sportswear. New spring deliveries have also started to check, he said. In women’s, “while ready-to-wear is up, we’re also seeing nice growth in handbags and jewelry, which has been the star.”
Top luxury performers at Mitchells Stores were Brunello Cucinelli, Zegna, Loro Piana, Brioni, Canali, Akris and The Row while Fedeli and Baldessari did well in the mid-tier.
Although reluctant to characterize the season as a success this early, Mitchell is upbeat. “The real numbers don’t start for us until 10 days before, so this could all be a mirage,” he said with a laugh. “But the customer is in a very good mood with how the [stock] market is performing and Bitcoin. So we expect it will be a good season.”
Shopify merchants saw $5 billion in Black Friday sales this year, up 22 percent from $4.1 billion a year ago. Sales peaked at $4.6 million per minute at 12:01 p.m. EST on Friday and the average cart carried $111.12 worth of goods, driven by sales of tops, cosmetics, fitness and nutrition, pants and activewear. Los Angeles, New York, London, San Francisco and Miami were among the platform’s top cities for the day. As of Sunday morning — and headed toward Cyber Monday — Shopify was seeing about 12,500 orders and sales of more than $1.2 million per minute. Shopify powers more than 2 million online merchants.
Target stores opened at 6 a.m. on Black Friday, but shoppers in some places started lining up as early as 11:30 the night before. The big-box store sought to draw consumers with Taylor Swift exclusives, including “The Official Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Book,” as well as versions of her album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” on CD and vinyl.
As some locations sold out of at least part of their Taylor Swift goodies by 10 a.m., Target looked to steer the traffic to other parts of the store with discounts, including 40 percent off for fleece and 50 percent off for some women’s, kids and men’s looks.
At Talbots, tops and sweaters were big sellers, due partially to a Black Friday special of $29.50 ”FestiviTees” for holiday-themed knit tops that generated 22,000 units in sales, according to a spokesperson. For gifting, sleepwear especially plaid flannel pajamas, were top sellers, along with down puffers and fashion vests.
At Loft, consumers were favoring cozy styles including novelty and shimmery designs. Everyday crewneck sweaters, soft sweat sets, puffer coats, vests, and Lou & Grey loungewear were among the best sellers. While most retailers were closed Thanksgiving, Loft’s Times Square location was open and had customers waiting on line before the opening.
Soma’s strong performers were “Cool Nights PJ sets,” loungewear, and bras, as well as a Soma printed tote bag gift with $100 purchase in stores only. Customers were “definitely ready” to shop for gifts and for themselves, according to the spokesperson.
Shoppers at White House Black Market favored denim, sequins, faux fur, leather and novelty pants for work and holiday parties. Bustiers, embellished sweaters and party dresses were popular in red, purple, and black and white.
Dick’s Sporting Goods flagged a handful of bestsellers, for example, in men’s, Nike’s full-zip Windrunner hoodie, On Cloud 5 shoes, and Carhartt’s K288 hoodie. In women’s, Nike’s Phoenix fleece oversize sweatshirt, Hoka’s women’s Clifton 9 running shoes and Calia soft scuba joggers, were cited. The weekend saw up to 30 percent off select Nike apparel, such as with Nike club hoodies, sweatshirts and joggers.
Blue Skies, Chilly Temperatures
Weather through the U.S. this past weekend was the coldest in more than 25 years, according to Evan Gold, executive vice president of Planalytics. And Black Friday was the coldest on a national basis since 2007, Gold added.
Over the weekend, “New York City and a lot of other major markets in the Northeast were below freezing for the first time this season,” pushing demand for outerwear, sweaters, hats and gloves up 5 to 15 percent,” Gold said.
New York City’s average temperature was 40 degrees versus 44 last year. Chicago averaged 23 degrees versus 33 last year, and Minneapolis was 16 degrees versus 27 degrees. Even Atlanta was colder, averaging 45 degrees versus 51 degrees last year. A few cities in the South Central and West were slightly warmer this weekend, with Los Angeles and Phoenix both averaging 65 degrees versus 62 last year.
“It’s definitely going to be a colder December,” Gold said. “Last December was the warmest ever recorded.” New York City is expected to average 30 degrees, or 10 degrees colder than a year ago; Chicago will average in the low- to mid-20s, or about 18 degrees colder than last year.
Jessica Ramírez, senior research analyst at Jane Hali & Associates, said retailers started to “bluntly” lay out Black Friday deals in early November, when warmer weather was restraining sales of outerwear. Because the season started early — as has been the case for a number of years — she said price discounts ticked up only slightly on Black Friday. And all the holiday price promotions mean a little less given the impact of inflation across the economy. “That’s just going to make the consumers feel more selective,” Ramírez said. “I don’t think this is going to be a great holiday season in general for retail. I think it’s still going to be flat [when] you adjust inflation into it.”
It’s a pricing dynamic that plays to the strengths of Walmart and the off-price channel, which Ramírez said would be winners. But value isn’t just about price. She said Ralph Lauren, Levi’s, Hoka and On — brands that have been on the rise and are playing to a strong area of the market — are well positioned and are going into the holiday season with only minimal promotions.
“The retail sector is being run much better than it has been in many years, in terms of inventory, in terms of price, in terms of promotions and even leaning into categories that make sense for the consumer today,” Ramírez said. In a good sign for fashion, “There is still that shift of people going more into office,” Ramírez said. “So apparel might have a better season.”
According to a report on Black Friday from consulting firm Ankara, “Stores like Lululemon, Nike, Gap and Athleta were extremely busy; Columbia, North Face and Converse were also busy with deeper discounts.”
Ankara also reported that Coach, Ugg and Michael Kors performed well, benefiting from discounts and consumer interest in luxury deals. Regarding department stores, Ankara reported, “While some anchor stores like Macy’s successfully attracted shoppers with organized and well-staffed environments, others such as Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom struggled with lower traffic and less effective promotional strategies. In general, those with clear and substantial discounts seemed to fare better.”
Meanwhile, “Beauty stores ran aggressive promotions and had the traffic to prove it. Where they appeared to fail, was in the ability to restock the shelves during the day. By mid-day Sephora and Ulta Beauty shelves were stripped clean and have to imagine missed a lot of sales.”
— With contributions from Lisa Lockwood, Evan Clark and Rosemary Feitelberg
