Salesforce, Adobe and the NRF Weigh In With Encouraging Cyber Week Reports

Evidence that the 2024 holiday season will be a winner keeps piling up, with final Cyber Monday tallies showing gains and bigger-than-expected turnouts at the malls over Black Friday weekend.

On Tuesday, software giant Adobe reported that U.S. consumers spent a total of $13.3 billion on Cyber Monday, up  7.3 percent year-over-year, and surpassing Adobe’s initial  projection of $13.2 billion. In the peak hours of 8 p.m. to 10 p.m., consumers spent $15.8 million  per minute.

“While Cyber Monday remained the season’s and year’s biggest online shopping day, year-over-year growth was stronger on both Thanksgiving and Black Friday,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, in a statement. “Early discounts were strong enough that many consumers felt comfortable hitting the buy button early on during Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday becoming ‘last call’ for shoppers to take advantage of big holiday deals.”

Cyber Week — the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday — brought in  $41.1 billion  online overall in the U.S., up  8.2 percent year-over-year, with Thanksgiving generating $6.1  billion, Black Friday $10.8 billion, and the weekend generating $10.9 billion. Adobe expects the full holiday season — which it defines as Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 — to hit  $240.8 billion in online sales, up 8.4 percent year-over-year. Adobe analyzes over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million stock keeping units and 18 product categories.

Salesforce also reported that Cyber Week generated $314.9 billion in global sales online, which was a 6 percent increase from the same period a year ago. In the U.S., Cyber Monday sales rose 7 percent to $76 billion. Salesforce’s holiday findings are based on the global shopping data from more than 1.5 billion consumers.

“Cyber Monday was a day for splurge purchases with luxury handbags and apparel categories seeing incredible growth,” observed Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights for Salesforce. “Throughout the weekend, retailers sweetened their discounts, enticing shoppers to wait for better deals before making purchases on higher-ticket items.”

The National Retail Federation on Monday estimated 197 million shoppers in the U.S. hit the stores during Cyber Week, based on an annual survey conducted in conjunction with Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure is down from last year’s record of 200.4 million, but surpassed NRF’s initial expectations of 183.4 million shoppers.

The NRF also indicated that 126 million consumers shopped at stores during Cyber Week, up from 121.4 million in 2023. Online shoppers totaled 124.3 million, down from 134.2 million shoppers last year. The survey of 3,055 adult consumers was conducted Nov. 27 to Dec. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Black Friday remains the most popular day for both in-store and online shopping: 81.7 million consumers shopped in stores on Black Friday, up from 76.2 million last year and the highest level since the pandemic. Approximately 87.3 million shopped online, down slightly from 90.6 million in 2023.

Cyber Monday remains the second most popular day for online shopping, attracting 64.4 million consumers this year, compared with 73.1 million in 2023. Sixty-three percent of Cyber Monday online shoppers opted to use their mobile device, up from 55 percent last year and the highest since NRF first started tracking mobile usage.

Consistent with last year, 86 percent of shoppers during the five-day period purchased gifts, spending $235, or $8 more than 2023, on average, the NRF indicated.

The most popular gift choices were clothing and accessories which were bought by 49 percent of those surveyed, while 31 percent bought toys, 27 percent bought gift cards, 23 percent bought food and candy and 23 percent bought personal care or beauty items, according to the NRF survey.

Top shopping destinations during Thanksgiving weekend were department stores (42 percent), online (42 percent), grocery stores and supermarkets (40 percent), apparel and accessories stores (37 percent) and discount stores (32 percent).

“Consumers showed resilience and strength particularly on household needs, but they’re more thoughtful and deliberate in spending,” said Matt Shay, NRF’s president and chief executive officer, during a media conference call Tuesday.

He also said that the “very strong” sales over the holiday weekend were “a positive indicator to where we are headed,” for the remainder of the holiday season.

“The Thanksgiving holiday weekend is a good indicator of consumer behavior and the strength of the holiday season…Black Friday is still the emotional kickoff for the holiday season,” said Shay. “Even with this year’s shortened shopping period and the multitude of early sales promotions from retailers, this past weekend exceeded expectations in terms of the sheer volume of shoppers.”

The NRF is forecasting U.S. sales will gain 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent for the Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 stretch, translating to $979 billion and $989 billion, compared to $955 billion in the year-ago period. That’s consistent with several other forecasts of low-single-digit sales gains for the 2024 holiday season by industry analysts and software firms. However, Customer Growth Partners, based on activity in stores and online over Black Friday weekend, raised its holiday sales gain forecast from 4 percent to 5 percent on Sunday.

Consumers have been motivated to shop more than last year by the industrial strength promotions since late October/early November; free shipping; the strong stock market; temperature drops spurring outerwear and cold weather accessory sales, increased use of AI to generate flash sales and gauge demand, and less uncertainty since the presidential election was decided. The NRF also pointed out that wage increases have exceeded inflation levels, and that the unemployment rate is low, at 4.1 percent as of last October.

Typically each year, a lull in the retail business cloaks industry results from right after Cyber Monday until 10 days to two weeks before Christmas. But retailers and shopping center operators told WWD they don’t expect a very deep lull to occur this year because of the compressed calendar, with only 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, compared with 31 last year.

Also, according to the NRF survey, Americans have completed 52 percent of their holiday shopping as of Cyber Monday.

While consumers are opening their wallets to shop, there is some question as to whether the sales gains retailers are reporting will continue through the holiday and into next year due to the specter of higher tariffs when President-elect Donald Trump gets back into the White House. “Consumers are very sensitive to pricing and have a very high level of awareness of tariffs and the impact of inflation. But during the holiday season, people have been shopping for holiday gifts as opposed to focusing on the specter of tariffs. We don’t believe a significant number of consumers are changing their behavior because there is so much unknown.”

Coresight, the research and data gathering firm, set its teams out to explore 40 stores in six states on Black Friday. Among Coresight’s findings:

Foot Locker, Macy’s, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delivered strong Black Friday performances based on high traffic and transactions. “Our team members saw full inventory availability at these stores, allowing the stores to cater to diverse consumer preferences and reduce the likelihood of stockouts.”
High volumes of drive-up orders seemed to hinder Target’s ability to fully prepare for Black Friday and there was “room for improvement in regard to enhancing the overall festive ambiance.”
At Abercrombie & Fitch, Lululemon and Zara, “We noticed opportunities to enhance the in-store shopping experience during Black Friday in terms of organization, signage and incorporating seasonal decorations. Stores were well-stocked in most locations, with extra merchandise on hand in boxes placed beside store shelves. Various stores seemed to have merchandise available in categories that sold out online.”
Inventory needed to be restocked at select American Eagle Outfitters, H&M and Target locations.
Even without doorbuster deals, Black Friday saw slightly higher overall shopper activity than last year with lines outside stores and ahead of checkout areas at multiple stores.
Stores with an older clientele, such as Ann Taylor, Chicos, J. Jill and Talbots, saw less foot traffic.

Key Holiday 2024 Trends

Americans embrace early Black Friday deals well before the actual holiday.
Consumers are highly selective and value-oriented, shopping more at discounters and offpricers.
Higher-income individuals are more prone to shop online.
Mobile shopping significantly increased.
Americans are eager to get out and socialize, fueling traffic in stores.