There’s often little correlation between consumer sentiment and consumer spending — and it’s most evident this back-to-school season, which is off to a strong and early start.
While Americans are depressed about inflation, with gas prices again averaging more than $4 a gallon, and their growing credit card debt, shoppers refuse to cut back spending for their kids’ school needs, whether that’s tech equipment, notebooks or a new pair of shoes.
That’s the latest assessment from the National Retail Federation, which predicts families in the U.S. will spend $43.3 billion for kindergarten through 12 students, and $103.5 billion for college students. That brings the total back-to-school spending in the U.S. this year to $146.8 billion, compared with $128.2 billion for the 2025 season.
NRF’s back-to-school forecast is based on a survey of 7,677 consumers from July 1 to 8 with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points, conducted in conjunction with Prosper Insights & Analytics.
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“Despite low sentiment and high gas prices, over the course of the year we’ve also seen record per person spend at almost every spending event this year,” said Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist and executive director of research, during a back-to-school briefing Tuesday afternoon.
“The good news for retailers and the economy is, frankly, when it comes to prioritizing how they’re spending their hard-earned dollars, consumers are telling us that they’re not willing to compromise on spending for school needs for their family,” Mathews said. “Most shoppers are willing to adopt a range of strategies to protect this essential spend this summer. Thirty-seven percent of consumers say they’re going to cut back on other spending areas if they have to, and 20 percent say they’ll utilize buy now, pay later options, while 7 percent say that they’ll work overtime hours if needed. So we have a consumer that is motivated to spend on their loved ones to get them those back-to-school items this fall.”
Allison Zeller, the NRF’s vice president of consumer and industry Insights, added: “Even during challenging economic years, back-to-school is a super resilient consumer spending event. Unlike spending on other situations or other holidays throughout the year, there’s really not very much strong correlation between consumer sentiment and their back-to-school spending. Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, Easter and Super Bowl combined are still less in total dollars than what we see spent during the back-to-school season.
“Within the retail industry and those who are tracking it closely, it’s also regarded as the last major read that we get on the consumer before we head into the winter holidays. So it’s very important and we’re certainly still early in the season. Believe it or not, consumers are already shopping for back-to-school, and they’ve started earlier than ever. And this is on trend with what we’ve seen, not just for back-to-school, but for other holidays throughout the year.”
Early back-to-school shopping was seen in June, spurred by heightened back-to-school promotions, most notably Amazon Prime Days, Target Circle and Walmart Deals. In July, Kohl’s launched its back-to-school campaign, promoting thousands of products priced below $25.
In years past, retailers kicked off the season around mid-July. Back-to-school, for most of the country, peaks in early to mid-August.
While back-to-school spending is holding up, questions about consumer spending later in the year linger, considering that Americans are saving less money and taking on more credit card debt. On top of that, wage growth has not been keeping up with inflation. All that raises uncertainty for retailers for the second half.
Families are prioritizing back-to-school selections largely based on affordability, shopping around to compare prices and focusing on discounters, mass merchants and coupons, while “one-stop shopping” is a thing of the past, according to the NRF officials.
Mathews said: “The savings rate is down at 3 percent, which is near record lows. The long-term average of how much we save as a percentage of our disposable income is 8.4 percent. So people are saving a lot less than they have historically and they’re more comfortable spending more. The fact they’re doing that, that’s great for the economy in the short term, but it could pose challenges down the road. With the bottom 80 percent of consumers, liquid savings are either flat or down over the last three years. For the top 20 percent, it’s no problem. They continue to spend. They continue to have a big buffer, which lower-income households — I’m talking about 80 percent of the population here — don’t have the buffer they once had, especially if we think back to the pandemic. That lower savings rate means there’s less available funds to lean on if there’s a leaner patch ahead.”
Mathews also noted that inflation has started to surpass wage growth.
“Real wage growth is now effectively at zero,” he said. “This creates a situation where it’s hard for the consumer to continue spending more, especially if savings remain soft. Now, we are hopeful that we’ll continue to see inflation soften as it did this month, but there’s little reason to believe that wage growth is going to rise much higher than current levels. So the really key thing here is that inflation is going to play an important role in the consumer’s ability to keep spending at the rate that we’ve seen in recent years.”
Mathews is also concerned about “the level of credit card debt and delinquency being near record highs.
“It’s not a perfect environment,” the economist said. “It’s going to be a challenging environment for retailers, but it could be a lot worse. We’ve seen strong retail sales over the last nine months, and there’s no reason to assume we will see dramatic softening over the second half of the year.”
Families with students in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $863.86 on back-to-school items this year, up slightly from $858.07 in 2025. K-12 shoppers plan to spend an average of $293.11 on electronics ($14.7 billion total), followed by $250.29 on clothing and accessories ($12.5 billion total), $174.01 on shoes ($8.7 billion total) and $146.45 on school supplies ($7.3 billion total).
Only 50 percent plan to purchase items online, down from 55 percent last year, according to the NRF. Other leading destinations include department stores (47 percent), discount stores (44 percent) and clothing stores (39 percent).
College students and their families are expected to spend an average of $1,437.79, up from $1,325.85 in 2025. Electronics remain the top college spending category, with consumers planning to spend an average of $341.95, totaling $24.63 billion in sales. Rounding out the top spending categories are $194 for dorm or apartment furnishings ($14 billion total), $182.39 on clothing and accessories ($13.1 billion total), $153.91 on food ($11.1 billion total) and $133.34 on personal care items ($9.6 billion total).
Not all industry sources were as positive about this year’s back-to-school season as the NRF, although analysts each use their own methodologies to project the trend.
Data from Deloitte indicates that the expected spending per child is $557, compared to $570 last year, with an estimated market of $30.4 billion for students below the college level. Deloitte indicated that inflation reached 4.2 percent in May, consumer sentiment remains “weak” with 57 percent of shoppers surveyed expecting the economy to worsen in the next six months. “Parents are, however, taking it in their stride, as value-seeking has become their default mode. Most back-to-school shoppers use at least one cost-saving tactic, while one-third employ four or more,” Deloitte reported.
Deloitte’s data is based on a survey of 1,201 parents of kindergarten to 12th grade students conducted from May 22 to 29.
But a recently published PwC report surveying nearly 1,200 parents found that three in four said they expect to spend the same or more for the start of the upcoming school year, despite inflation, apparently concurring with NRF’s take that the demand for shopping persists.
PwC reported that families expect to spend $922 on back-to-school shopping for kindergarten up to 12th grade students, with 47 percent of parents expected to spend more than they did last year. PwC sees clothing and shoes as the biggest areas of spending, averaging $278 per household, followed by technology at $222 per household.
According to PWC, the top ways parents are looking to save are prioritizing buying items on sale (37 percent), shopping early (37 percent), reusing items from previous years (34 percent) and spending less, but buying similar items (32 percent). PwC surveyed 2,080 adults ages 18 and older in the U.S. between May 20 and 22.
Survey respondents said that they foresee a 6 percent increase in spending on clothing and accessories this year — with 57 percent of parents reporting they can be swayed to splurge on their child’s first-day outfit. But spending on tech, school supplies, home and health is expected to decline.
